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The Guesstimate

To begin with talking about estimations, it would be fitting to provide the definition. Merriam-Webster defines "Estimation" as -


1 a: to judge tentatively or approximately the value, worth, or significance of b: to determine roughly the size, extent, or nature of c: to produce a statement of the approximate cost of



Working in the automotive industry, estimates are a big part of the job. Doing sales we provide customers with estimates for the cost of repairs and builds. We also provide an ETA for any parts that we are ordering. ETA is Estimated Time of Arrival, again, key word being "Estimated." With all of these being estimated, there is never an exact number or timeline.


Since April of 2020, parts have become increasingly more difficult to get. It was almost a perfect storm of the countries going on lockdowns and employees being laid off or forced to stay at home. We are feeling the effect of the shortages of raw materials and the shortages of shipping containers to bring parts to the US.



Due to this, trying to give an accurate ETA is very difficult. I have seen parts on back orders up to 18 months. We live in a society that needs immediate gratification. I understand the excitement of getting new parts but there needs to be some patience. Many times I have watched people cancel orders to get an inferior part for their vehicle. I will share some of my vast knowledge when it comes to parts that are in stock and constantly ready to ship. They are available because they are poor quality and no one in their right mind wants to install them on their vehicle. Be patient and wait for the right part.


Understand that every shop in the country is doing their best to keep parts in stock and to inform customers of any updates regarding the status of parts ordered. One must ave some understanding that you are not the only one in the world waiting for their part, I myself waited 7 months for my own exhaust. I didn't call HKS every day asking where it was, I waited because that's all I could do. Me calling HKS to ask where my exhaust is would not expedite the exhaust. Never in the history of our business has a situation occurred that calling 5 days in a row made a part magically become available, unfortunately the current state of the world does not follow the "squeaky wheel gets the grease" methodology. Instead its more of a "when grease becomes available then only only then will the wheels get it". And further more many businesses are starting to, well... let the :Squeaky wheel" fall off and just replace it with a new wheel that does not squeak as there seems to be a abundance of them available. In the end is not so good for the squeaky wheel.







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